Guest post by Fern (PM me if you want her Facebook link, where she posts stuff like this):
Friends keep asking me to write something about the war with Iran, because the reporting in the US has been so spotty. This is way too long, but hope it is helpful to some of you.
The Iran war:
A quickish easy primer on why everyone’s reasoning is wrong; who’s really winning; what about the oil; who’s the bad guy; fake news; and what’s next?
You’ve been sold a bill of goods.
I get that this is an incredibly unpopular war in the U.S.
It’s not that there aren’t some ‘good’ reasons to oppose this war.
* If you’re an isolationist/anti-interventionist. (But then, please be opposed to intervention in *all* wars. Did you protest to keep U.S. assistance out of Ukraine? Selective isolationism is hypocritical.)
* If you’re a pacifist. (Again, you need to support pacifism everywhere. If you’re marching for global intifada or a war on Palestine, you’re not a pacifist.)
* If you’re opposed to the financial cost of such a war in general, or against rising gas prices in particular. (Ok, but again, this is a hypocritical position unless you are consistent about it. Would you have wanted us to stay home from WWII or other ‘moral’ wars, because of the cost?)
* If you are concerned about the effect the war will have on US status throughout the world. (Debatable. Most countries already had thoughts on the current U.S.)
* If you don’t believe Iran is going nuclear. (The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reports that Iran is edged close to producing weapons-grade uranium, with enriched uranium stockpiles nearing the 90% purity level required for a nuclear bomb. As of early 2026, Iran held 440.9 kg of uranium enriched up to 60%, a short technical step from weaponization.)
* If you don’t think the war has quantifiable goals, or you think that the goals (like regime change) are mushy or not achievable. (Just preventing Iran from going nuclear might be sufficient justification for the war, whether or not there is success in achieving regime change.)
* If you think this is Israel’s war, not America’s. (While it is true that for Israel this is both a more immediate, and more existential, war than for the US - 93% of Jewish Israelis, and 81% of Israelis overall, support this war - it was the US that initiated this war. The same Iranian mullahs that proclaim “Death to Israel!” chant “Death to America” - and fund terrorists around the world who target Americans, killing huge numbers of US soldiers everywhere in the Mid East.)
* If you don’t trust the leaders running the war, their motivation, their plan, or their timing (including all things Epstein and midterms). (I truly get this one, and it is certainly a valid reason to examine war decisions very carefully. But can we try to separate out the legitimacy of the war from the leaders running it?)
* If you just plain hate anything Trump does. (I get that this is where a lot of you are coming from. Please read on.)
So you may have reasons.
But not only do most Americans seem to think they have good reasons for opposing the war…
Most Americans seem to really believe that the US is *losing* this war.
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News flash:
Iran is losing the war.
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Blame it on social media, fake news, AI, and Iran’s superior propaganda machine …
The US is winning. By a lot.
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First of all, though the U.S. populace is unconvinced, the Iranian regime is unpopular with pretty much everyone.
Iran has sent missiles to the Gulf States (including United Arab Emirates (UAE), Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, Iraq, Jordan, Syria, and Oman.) Attacks have also been reported in Cyprus, and Turkey. And Iran is also attacking countries that do *not* house U.S. military bases - like Azerbaijan. So Iran has lost the support of most of the Middle East, including some former friends and supporters.
Moreover, a piece in yesterday’s Wall Street Journal confirmed that Iran, contrary to their claims of only targeting U.S. bases, has in fact targeted mostly civilian targets everywhere they have hit, including former friends like Qatar. Iran has sent more than 2,000 missiles and drones to United Arab Emirates alone, over 80% aimed at civilian infrastructure, including airports, hotels and data centers.
And although Iranian proxies (Lebanon’s Hezbollah and Gaza’s Hamas) have risen to Iran’s defense, even the Houthis in Yemen, also an Iranian proxy, have remained curiously silent, despite several announcements that they will be jumping into the war. Iranian allegiance may now be a liability for the Houthis.
*Because Iran is losing the war.*
74 retired U.S. army generals and admirals just voiced strong support for the war.
Iranian expats support the war.
And Iranian citizens who live in Iran - a full 85-90% of the populace - have cheered on this war, and have cheered for the assassinations. Despite the fact that the country is now under attack.
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Second, Iran has lost much of its leadership, all of its navy, and control over its own airspace.
Yes, Iran is still able to fire ballistic missiles at Israel and the Gulf States, and (in what is clearly a war crime) cluster bombs; analysts say Iran has fired over 500 ballistic missiles (and as many as 1500 drones). But they are being fired in smaller numbers, and with less frequency.
That is because Israel and the U.S. have taken out 89-95% of Iran’s missile launchers: Missiles are down from 350 to 25 per day; drones from 800 to 75 per day. Israel’s Iron Dome defense has meant that there have been relatively few casualties in Israel. Air superiority has been established over a country 1,000 miles from Israel.
And Iranian nuclear abilities are also curtailed, though the details of how much nuclear has been eliminated are closely guarded (and may remain murky).
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Third:
Yes, it’s possible that Iran can retaliate by inflicting damage on the U.S. in other ways.
It is true that the current range of Iranian missiles may be too short to reach the U.S.
But Hamas and Hezbollah are both Iranian proxies, opening up the possibility of ‘lone’ terrorist attacks aimed at targets in the U.S. (Nine synagogues and Jewish communal institutions were attacked just last week.)
And Iran is tight with the Mexican drug cartels: Iran doesn’t need to be within ballistic range of the U.S.; they can just arm a Mexican fishing dinghy with drones.
At a Senate hearing, CIA Director John Ratcliffe just said if Iran is not stopped, it will have the capability to reach the U.S. mainland with missiles.
(Incidentally, to the people who keep insisting that a terrorist attack on American soil from Iran will be counterproductive because it will turn US support towards the war: I wish you were right, but I suspect you are wrong: I believe such an attack will just cause people to double down on their insistence that ‘we started the war, so Iran can defend itself however it likes.’ I hope I am wrong about that, and I hope it never comes to that.)
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And all of these are just more reasons the U.S. needs to have this war now - rather than in even another year, when Iran is nuclear.
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Oil:
In a Hail Mary act of near desperation, Iran is now behaving erratically: Indiscriminately firing at its former Gulf State friends; firing at countries that do not host a U.S. military presence (eg, Azerbaijan); firing at Turkey, a NATO member.
And then there is the issue of the oil. Ninety percent of Iran’ oil exports pass through Kharg and the Strait of Hormuz.
China is by far Iran’s largest customer. (The U.S. isn’t dramatically affected by oil, except tangentially; the U.S. supplies 70% of its own oil; and most of the rest still comes from Canada.) Iran is curtailing access to Hormuz and mining the strait.
My guess is that this is Iran’s last-ditch attempt to drag Russia and China into the conflict. But Russia, although it is doing some intelligence- sharing and other low-key support of its ally Iran, is already benefiting from the lifting of sanctions, and has its hands full with Ukraine; and China, while they may see this as an opportune time to swoop down on Taiwan, probably isn’t ready to champion Iran against the rest of the world on the oil. My guess is they’ll sit tight for a few more weeks to see how this plays out, rather than jumping in to support Iran.
What you are witnessing are the last ditch efforts of a losing country.
Today, as I’m publishing this, European countries have just declined to help Trump keep open Hormuz. Yes, this is another manifestation of European leaders’ dislike of Trump and all the tariff stuff. In this case, however, it is they who will suffer if Hormuz is closed. Trump can, if necessary, fix pricing on American oil to keep US prices manageable.
I think Trump should lob the problem back to Europe: If they don’t want to aid in this effort, let them eat cake. And it is China who will suffer primarily anyway.
And if Iran continues to block the straits, the U.S. should just obliterate Kharg. No one lives there.
I have no doubt that someone will point out why this part of my analysis isn’t feasible.
In the meantime, Trump is likely to use this debacle as a pretext to defund US involvement in NATO - to the tune of $935 billion in 2024, 2/3 of NATO’s budget, almost double that of all other NATO allies combined. Sigh.
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So there aren’t great reasons to oppose this war.
And Iran is losing this war.
And attempting to destroy their own oil is Iran’s last-gasp effort.
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But a lot of people still seem to feel Iran is the wronged party here. Is it?
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Who’s the bad guy?
Maybe you don’t know the history of Iranian behavior under this Islamic extremist regime: Their constant cries (well before this war) of Death to America and Death to Israel. (Someone online advised me that Iran saying ‘death to everything’ is just a figure of speech. Since they have now followed up the rhetoric with hundreds of ballistic missiles with cluster bombs aimed at Israel, I think it may be prudent to take them at their word.) American servicemen generally support this war, because of all the Iranian-initiated U.S. deaths over the decades.
Besides their threats to America and Israel, there is their behavior towards their own people. Towards their women. Towards their gays. Towards their own citizens.
But you actually don’t need to know the history.
Look at Iran just this month, and how many of their own citizens they mowed down - an estimated 35,000 to 40,000 who were guilty only of peaceful protest.
Where were the US protests marching for the tens of thousands of Iranian protesters?
Crickets.
Look at who’s lining up in support: Hamas and Lebanon’s Hezbollah on the side of Iran, encouraging terrorist attacks against Jews and Americans (9 attacks on synagogues and Jewish communal institutions just last week). The gulf states, who understand the geopolitic realities better than we do, are united against Iran.
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Another thing: Fake news
AI is showing you ‘photos’ of Tel Aviv in ruins. (They are made up.)
The rumor that Netanyahu is dead? Fake. (And thanks, all; the run-around-the-country-to-prove-he’s-alive tour this fake news prompted will probably net him another five years in office.)
The photo showing the port of Beersheva in ruins? Fake. (Also, Beersheva is land-locked - there is no port.) See photo. Fake.
And Kent, the anti-terrorism guy who just resigned? That wasn’t fake news exactly, he did write it, but take a closer look at his letter. He accused Israel of all kinds of crazy. (Among other things, the resignation letter blames his wife’s death on Israel: She was actually killed in a suicide attack by ISIS in 2019, in the Syrian civil war.) Anyway, Kent is now apparently being investigated by the FBI, so I’d take his claims with a grain of salt.
The real photos? They’re the ones of sites all over Iran, where Iranians, at risk of
retaliation, have hung American and Israeli flags, in a clear show of gratitude for the U.S. and Israeli taking on the mullahs.
Support for the Iranian regime is low, with surveys indicating that only 15-20% of Iranians living in Iran support the Islamic Republic.
Support among Iranian expats living outside the country is apparently even lower, though precise numbers aren’t available.
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What’s next?
The IDF messaging suggests that Israel has several more weeks of military targets remaining, bringing us through Passover, which begins April 1. (Unlike Iran, which is specifically targeting civilians, Israel is pinpointing only Islamic regime military targets and leaders, so the end is in sight.) Israel ultimately won’t get to decide the timing: Trump has vacillated wildly between “We’ve won the war, it’s over” to “Iran wants a ceasefire, but I’m not done yet,” so it’s unclear how soon he will declare the war over.
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In the end, you either understand, or don’t get, what this war is ultimately about - even though Iran has been pretty clear about it, for decades. The mullahs want the radical Islamization of the world. They will do anything to achieve that goal (including lying about their nuclear progress, or anything else.) If you don’t start believing what they’re telling you, you’re going to continue to be surprised by their actions.
In the meantime, de-fanging Iran, particularly nuclear Iran, and simultaneously de-funding Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis; and re-establishing significant deterrence, can only be good for the world as a whole.
I hope this war is over soon. I hope it’s won decisively enough that we don’t have to fight it again anytime soon. And I hope you all are able to shed your denial about what is actually happening here.
Stay safe, friends.
Edited to add:
Another thing no one is reporting - or they’re reporting with the wrong emphasis. On Saturday, March 21, Iran launched two intermediate-range ballistic missiles at the US-UK base at Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean. The launches were unsuccessful. However, this means that almost nowhere in Europe is now safe from Iranian missiles.
